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CryptoQuant: Bitcoin could increase 3-5 times in the current bull cycle.
The founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, believes that Bitcoin could see an increase of about 3-5 times in the current bull cycle, rather than entering a parabolic rise with an increase of 10 times or more as seen in some previous cycles. According to him, the structure of the Bitcoin market has changed significantly as institutional capital inflow increases and market capitalization expands, thereby limiting extreme volatility in both upward and downward directions.
Ki Young Ju notes that the current Bitcoin market is unlikely to completely replicate the patterns of previous cycles, when most of the capital came from retail investors and market liquidity was relatively low. In such phases, speculative capital could quickly push Bitcoin prices up vertically, but this often led to very deep corrections, with declines of up to about 80%.
According to the founder of CryptoQuant, the increasing participation of institutions along with Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is creating structural differences. As the market becomes larger and has more long-term capital inflows, the likelihood of extreme volatility as seen in previous cycles may decrease. This means Bitcoin can still enter a strong upward trend, but the growth rate may be significantly lower compared to periods that saw prices increase 10 times or more.
Ki Young Ju also highlighted some on-chain signals that he finds noteworthy in the current cycle. One of the indicators mentioned is MVRV, a measure comparing Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization. According to him, MVRV in this cycle has never dropped below 1, indicating that the market has not fallen into a state where Bitcoin’s market value is lower than its realized capitalization.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s realized cap continues to rise along with new capital entering the market. Realized cap reflects the value of Bitcoin based on the price at which BTC was last moved, providing another perspective on the actual capital being injected into the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Another signal emphasized by Ki Young Ju is the distribution activity of early Bitcoin whales, often referred to as “OG whales.” According to the data he monitors, this group of investors has significantly paused their distribution activities, instead of continuously selling as in some previous phases. This is a noteworthy factor as the reduction in selling by long-term Bitcoin wallets could alter the supply pressure in the market.
Meanwhile, whales in the futures market are believed to have increased their long positions relatively strongly around the cycle’s bottom. This capital flow indicates that a segment of large traders is betting on Bitcoin’s recovery after correction phases.
Ki Young Ju also mentioned the 365-day moving average of the CryptoQuant PnL Index. This indicator is showing a notable reversal point, adding another signal to the on-chain picture he is monitoring.
